Silver, the quadruple bottom

Silver currently at 28.32 USD has formed a quadruple bottom.

This base at approximately 26 should hold.  If that breaks then it'll be 22.91 is strong support.  June and July are traditionally crash months for gold and silver.  And summer is supposed to be strong months.  However last year we had very strong run ins for gold and silver before the summer period, followed by weak performance in the summer months.  However we're not in normal times.  JP Morgan announced a 2 billion dollar loss in derivatives, as reported.  In reality it's more like 18 billion.  That is huge.  To understand how crazy that is, the top 10 US banks in the world hold 200 trillion dollars in derivatives.  The World GDP stands at only 70 trillion!!  There's a lot more derivatives in the world than real assets.  For me I hold both hard assets and speculative positions.  I believe Silver is the easiest way by far for anyone to get wealthy during this time period, if they know how to play the game.  I've added more 40 Strikes for December 2012 with an expectation that Silver will hit at least 60 before that time period.  I fully expect QE 3 to be announced in June, or some form of it.

Silver

I look at the graph of Silver now and it doesn't look pretty.  It's close to the December lows, and looks like it's going to head that way.  If that breaks, there's strong support at 22.86, bringing us back all the way to October 2010.  I strongly doubt that would happen though, unless severe deflation breaks loose.  If that's the case, be prepared to see the biggest QE ever.  My buying area would be around the $20-$28 level.  It's a large range, so it's probably best to scale in.  Goes the same with options.  I'm targeting Dec 2012 and March 2013 strikes $40 strikes, further out if need be.  I have a gut feeling when Silver moves again, instead of seeing the downward smashes that took place in May and Sept last year, we're going to see large rallies, and I mean like 10% movements in a day.

Gold standard definition

According to Harry Schultz.

There is no morality in fiat paper.  None, zero, nada.  No honesty, No trust, it's all built on lies.  I don't know how can people stand for this.  The entire financial system is a bloody scam.  Commerce is the lifeblood of any economy, yet no one is taught in school how money has come about, yet children are made to learn things that may never be of use to them, ever.  Amazing.

Today's spot Silver $30.63, down 26.48% from a year ago.  Today's spot Gold 1654.10, up 7.02% from a year ago.

Last year I said Silver will be $60 by June, looks like that's going to be by the end of December.  Gold, conservatively we're looking at $2000 to $2500.  However, if the US dollar collapses by the end of this year, which certain Elite have said it would, then higher prices will be expected.  I am positive we're now reaching a parabolic stage when everyone around the world will rush into the precious metals.  However, I don't expect Gold to hit $5000 or $10000 because a new currency will probably be introduced before that should happen.

Shown below, 15 year graphs of both metals.

Silver Bottoming

It's the upcoming easter weekend and what a prelude, Spot Silver is currently down 4.47% to 31.22  It will spend the next few months forming a bottom.  Meanwhile I've repositioned myself for the rally that's coming probably within the next few months.  Two weeks ago I sold out on almost every silver position I had but today with Silver falling it's just an irresistible time for me to get back in.  I'm now out of the money positioned for $60 strikes in December 2012 with the risk reward ratio pretty insane considering what's about to unfold.  I don't know the exact bottom but I'm not going to cry over a few thousand dollars which is my downside should Silver fall to $30 support or below which I highly doubt so may happen.  These are life changing opportunities and there's no way I'm going to let this pass me by.  The longer the continued consolidation, the greater the expected rally that will unfold.

I got handed a huge lesson

Okay looks like the $60 June target for Silver isn't happening, I've closed out my Silver July positions for a 95% loss.  A huge hit on my portfolio.  Silver is currently at $32.15.  It's probably going to fall all the way to $30 and maybe even the Jan low of $27.  In hindsight I should have closed my positions when silver got the other smackdown in December but these are abnormal times.  It is worth taking a shot in these times because these events can change your life.  I'll probably re-enter if Silver really does go to $27 but for now I've closed out all my Silver positions.  Silver has been consolidating for 11 months now since the May smackdown after a 9 month rally from Sept 2010 to May 2011.  There's no way that Silver will even be $50 by June, if it did that would be a 56% rise in 3 months!  But we'll see.  Perhaps Silver will still reach $50 by years' end.  56% rise in 9 months that's doable.  But who knows?  The metals are manipulated so it's really hard to tell how the price will move.  Silver reached $37 end February and looked like it was going to head to $40 according to Tech Analysis.  And right now, well... :)  that's why for a simple person it's just easier to stay long and buy on dips.

Keep the faith.

Happy New Year

Well it's another new year!  Financially last year was a good year, it could've been a great year but silver ended the year less than it begun and I was heavily leaning towards silver in my investing, and options can make or break you.  I had endured some real rollercoaster rides with my portofolio which ended up with a 50% gain overall.  That's in contrast to silver being down several percent, gold up 11% in terms of US dollars, and the stock market going nowhere.  So that's really really good progress, even though I was up in the triple digits for the majority of the year but that's just something I have to live with. :)  I also visited many countries this year, did the most amount of travelling I have ever have and lived in a different country.  I've still been slack with software development.  Might think of something else to do before this year is over, but... who knows.

Positives
- Year ended even better than the last.
- Travelled a hell lot.
- Learned a hell lot trading and managing a portfolio.  Maybe I could run a hedge fund in the future.
- Grew a hell lot personally.

Negatives
- Didn't save as much as I could, but the good thing is for everything that I purchased I could do so because I could afford to do so.
- Social life is still kind of dead in the water.
- I still need something to truly inspire me.
- Lost the girl in Australia, that sucked but someone else will love me for who I am.
- Economy is still shit house, how long will this mirage go on for?

This year could be a make or break year for many people financially.  Which side are you going to be on?  If you trust your government then keep with the fiat currency.  If you stand for personal freedom then stick with Go(l)d and Silver.  For me well I already know the game, its the end of paper.  It is amazing what people don't know, and what people are not interested in even though it affects them a great and a huge deal.  Unfortunately when the USD collapses, it will be overnight, these things have always happened overnight, and by then it will already be too late for many.  The matter of fact is, if you are not in your 80s, you truly have never experienced bad times, and for many this year if not next will be a very, very hard time for many.  It's time to take charge of your own finances and your life and stop listening to lying politicians and war mongering governments.

Every single currency lost to gold this year, an average of 14.3%.  Here's my "favourite" currencies.

Gold AUD Jan 1 2011 - 1389
Gold AUD Dec 31 2011 - 1531
Return - 10%

Gold SGD Jan 1 2011 - 1826
Gold SGD Dec 31 2011 - 2027
Return - 11%

Gold NOK Jan 1 2011 - 8273
Gold NOK Dec 31 2011 - 9345
Return - 13%

Gold EUR Jan 1 2011 - 1062
Gold EUR Dec 31 2011 - 1206
Return - 13.6%

Bring on 2012!

PMs in perspective

Silver is currently at 31.60.  I've loaded up on more Silver positions and closed out my Oil positions.

To put things into perspective, let's have a look at the Silver weekly chart.

From Dec 08 to May 09, Silver has been below the 50 week MA (Moving Average).  Ever since that time it has always been above the 50 week MA.  That represents a more than 2 year run above that level!  Now that Silver is back below this level it will probably run higher when it gets above this level.  Make no mistake, this is a great buying opportunity.


Let's look at Gold.

Gold's graph looks incredible.  It hasn't had a pause since Feb 09!  Again the blue line represents the 50 week MA.

The trend is still up and both represent great buying opportunities.  Although I have to say, Silver represents a better opportunity.